A decade of progress in juvenile idiopathic athritis treatments and outcomes in Canada: results from ReACCh-Out and the CAPRI registry.

OBJECTIVE: To assess changes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) treatments and outcomes in Canada, comparing a 2005-2010 and a 2017-2021 inception cohorts. METHODS: Patients enrolled within three months of diagnosis in the Research in Arthritis in Canadian Children Emphasizing Outcomes (ReACCh-Out) and the Canadian Alliance of Pediatric Rheumatology Investigators Registry (CAPRI) cohorts were included. Cumulative incidences of drug starts and outcome attainment within 70 weeks of diagnosis were compared with Kaplan Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: The 2005-2010 and 2017-2021 cohorts included 1128 and 721 patients, respectively. JIA category distribution and baseline clinical juvenile idiopathic arthritis disease activity (cJADAS10) scores at enrolment were comparable. By 70 weeks, 6% of patients (95% CI 5, 7) in the 2005-2010 and 26% (23, 30) in the 2017-2021 cohort had started a biologic DMARD (bDMARD), and 43% (40, 47) and 60% (56, 64) had started a conventional DMARD (cDMARD), respectively. Outcome attainment was 64% (61, 67) and 83% (80, 86) for Inactive disease (Wallace criteria), 69% (66, 72) and 84% (81, 87) for minimally active disease (cJADAS10 criteria), 57% (54, 61) and 63% (59, 68) for pain control (<1/10), and 52% (47, 56) and 54% (48, 60) for a good health-related quality of life. CONCLUSION: Although baseline disease characteristics were comparable in the 2005-2010 and 2017-2021 cohorts, cDMARD and bDMARD use increased with a concurrent increase in minimally active and inactive disease. Improvements in parent and patient reported outcomes were smaller than improvements in disease activity.

Dr. Gottlieb et al reply.

We thank the author for their reply1 and appreciate the approach of having clear terminology and standard definitions within clinical practice guidelines or recommendations, that are applicable across specialist groups. A definition of controlled anterior uveitis or quiescent disease is important for treatment decisions, particularly when classifying a patient's disease as failing current therapy and making decisions for escalating therapy.

Paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome in Canada: population-based surveillance and role of SARS-CoV-2 linkage.

BACKGROUND: Paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome (PIMS) is a rare condition temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using national surveillance data, we compare presenting features and outcomes among children hospitalized with PIMS by SARS-CoV-2 linkage, and identify risk factors for intensive care (ICU). METHODS: Cases were reported to the Canadian Paediatric Surveillance Program by a network of >2800 pediatricians between March 2020 and May 2021. Patients with positive versus negative SARS-CoV-2 linkages were compared, with positive linkage defined as any positive molecular or serologic test or close contact with confirmed COVID-19. ICU risk factors were identified with multivariable modified Poisson regression. RESULTS: We identified 406 children hospitalized with PIMS, including 49.8% with positive SARS-CoV-2 linkages, 26.1% with negative linkages, and 24.1% with unknown linkages. The median age was 5.4 years (IQR 2.5-9.8), 60% were male, and 83% had no comorbidities. Compared to cases with negative linkages, children with positive linkages experienced more cardiac involvement (58.8% vs. 37.4%; p < 0.001), gastrointestinal symptoms (88.6% vs. 63.2%; p < 0.001), and shock (60.9% vs. 16.0%; p < 0.001). Children aged ≥6 years and those with positive linkages were more likely to require ICU. CONCLUSIONS: Although rare, 30% of PIMS hospitalizations required ICU or respiratory/hemodynamic support, particularly those with positive SARS-CoV-2 linkages. IMPACT: We describe 406 children hospitalized with paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome (PIMS) using nationwide surveillance data, the largest study of PIMS in Canada to date. Our surveillance case definition of PIMS did not require a history of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, and we therefore describe associations of SARS-CoV-2 linkages on clinical features and outcomes of children with PIMS. Children with positive SARS-CoV-2 linkages were older, had more gastrointestinal and cardiac involvement, and hyperinflammatory laboratory picture. Although PIMS is rare, one-third required admission to intensive care, with the greatest risk amongst those aged ≥6 years and those with a SARS-CoV-2 linkage.

Validation of the parent global assessment as a health-related quality of life measure in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: results from ReACCh-Out.

OBJECTIVES: To (i) validate the JIA parent global assessment (parent global) as a health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instrument; (ii) evaluate measurement properties of accepted HRQoL measures relative to those of the parent global; and (iii) assess causal pathways determining parent global scores. METHODS: Data from the Research in Arthritis in Canadian Children emphasizing outcomes (ReACCh-Out) cohort were used. Measurement properties were assessed in 344 patients at enrolment and 6 months later. Causal pathways were tested by structural equation modelling to understand root causes and mediators leading to parent global scores. RESULTS: Construct validity was supported by Spearman correlations of 0.53-0.70 for the parent global with the Juvenile Arthritis Quality of Life Questionnaire, Quality of My Life health scale (HRQoML), Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL)-Parent, and Child Health Questionnaire (CHQ)-Physical. Exceptions were PedsQL-Child (0.44) and CHQ-Psychosocial (0.31). Correlations were lower (0.14-0.49) with disease activity measures (physician global assessment of disease activity, active joint count, ESR). Responsiveness of the parent global to improvement according to parent ratings (0.51) was acceptable and within the range (0.32-0.71) of that of other measures. Reliability estimates and measurement errors for all measures were unsatisfactory, likely due to the prolonged time between assessments. Causal pathways for the parent global matched those previously reported for HRQoML. CONCLUSIONS: Our results offer support for the parent global as a valid measure of HRQoL for JIA. If confirmed, existing studies using the parent global may be re-interpreted, enhancing our knowledge of HRQoL in children with JIA.

Comparing Canadian paediatric rheumatology practice to the 2019 ACR Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis guidelines: results from the CAPRI Registry.

OBJECTIVE: To identify differences between baseline Canadian JIA practices and the 2019 ACR guidelines for JIA. METHODS: Canadian paediatric rheumatologists were surveyed for their opinions on reasonable a priori target adherence rates for JIA guideline recommendations. Prospectively collected data for 266 newly diagnosed children from 2017 to 2019 were analysed to calculate observed adherence rates. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate the cumulative incidence of starting synthetic or biologic DMARDs (sDMARD or bDMARD, respectively) for different patient groups. RESULTS: A total of 25/61 (41%) eligible physicians answered the survey. Most survey respondents (64%) felt that adherence targets should vary depending on the strength of the recommendation and quality of evidence, from a mean of 84% for strong recommendations with high-quality evidence to 29% for conditional recommendations with very low-quality evidence. Data showed 13/19 (68%) recommendations would have met proposed targets and 10/19 (53%) had ≥80% observed adherence. Exceptions were the use of subcutaneous vs oral MTX (53%) and infrequent treatment escalation from NSAIDs to bDMARDs in patients with sacroiliitis (31%) or enthesitis (0%). By 12 weeks, 95% of patients with polyarthritis received sDMARDs, 38% of patients with systemic JIA received bDMARDs and 22% of patients with sacroiliitis received bDMARDs. CONCLUSION: Canadian paediatric rheumatology practices were in line with many 2019 JIA guideline recommendations before their publication, except for frequent use of oral MTX and infrequent direct escalation from NSAIDs to bDMARDs in sacroiliitis and enthesitis.

The 2021 EULAR/American College of Rheumatology Points to Consider for Diagnosis, Management and Monitoring of the Interleukin-1 Mediated Autoinflammatory Diseases: Cryopyrin-Associated Periodic Syndromes, Tumour Necrosis Factor Receptor-Associated Periodic Syndrome, Mevalonate Kinase Deficiency, and Deficiency of the Interleukin-1 Receptor Antagonist.

BACKGROUND: The interleukin-1 (IL-1) mediated systemic autoinflammatory diseases, including the cryopyrin- associated periodic syndromes (CAPS), tumour necrosis factor receptor-associated periodic syndrome (TRAPS), mevalonate kinase deficiency (MKD) and deficiency of the IL-1 receptor antagonist (DIRA), belong to a group of rare immunodysregulatory diseases that primarily present in early childhood with variable multiorgan involvement. When untreated, patients with severe clinical phenotypes have a poor prognosis, and diagnosis and management of these patients can be challenging. However, approved treatments targeting the proinflammatory cytokine IL-1 have been life changing and have significantly improved patient outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To establish evidence-based recommendations for diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of patients with IL-1 mediated autoinflammatory diseases to standardise their management. METHODS: A multinational, multidisciplinary task force consisting of physician experts, including rheumatologists, patients or caregivers and allied healthcare professionals, was established. Evidence synthesis, including systematic literature review and expert consensus (Delphi) via surveys, was conducted. Consensus methodology was used to formulate and vote on statements to guide optimal patient care. RESULTS: The task force devised five overarching principles, 14 statements related to diagnosis, 10 on therapy, and nine focused on long-term monitoring that were evidence and/or consensus-based for patients with IL-1 mediated diseases. An outline was developed for disease-specific monitoring of inflammation-induced organ damage progression and reported treatments of CAPS, TRAPS, MKD and DIRA. CONCLUSION: The 2021 EULAR/American College of Rheumatology points to consider represent state-of-the-art knowledge based on published data and expert opinion to guide diagnostic evaluation, treatment and monitoring of patients with CAPS, TRAPS, MKD and DIRA, and to standardise and improve care, quality of life and disease outcomes.

Number of Episodes Can Be Used as a Disease Activity Measure in Familial Mediterranean Fever.

Objective: To evaluate the number of episodes in the past 12 months as an indicator of the overall disease activity status in Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF). Methods: In this cross-sectional study, patients were recruited from tertiary pediatric hospitals. Demographic data, main clinical symptoms of the episodes, treatment modalities, and genetic mutations were recorded. The patients were grouped as no episodes (Group 1), 1-4 episodes (Group 2), and more than 4 episodes (Group 3) according to the number of episodes in the past 12 months. The Pediatric Quality Life Inventory (PedsQL), the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI), and the Wong-Baker FACES Pain Rating Scale (FACES) scores were compared between groups. Concurrent validity between the number of episodes and the patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) was assessed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (ρ). Results: A total of 239 patients were included. There were 74 patients (31%) in Group 1, 99 (41.4%) in Group 2, and 66 (27.6%) in Group 3. Groups were similar according to age, age at diagnosis, gender, consanguinity, family history, history of amyloidosis, clinical symptoms, and in terms of allele frequency (p > 0.05). According to PROMs completed by parents, moderate correlations were found between the number of episodes and the PedsQL score (ρ = -0.48; 95% CI = -0.58 to -0.35, p < 0.001) and between the number of episodes and the Wong-Baker FACES score (ρ = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.35-0.57, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The number of episodes was positively and moderately correlated with patient- and parent-reported outcomes in our cohort. The number of episodes in patients with FMF can be used as a single measure to assess disease activity.

Wide variation in glucocorticoid dosing in paediatric ANCA-associated vasculitis with renal disease: a paediatric vasculitis initiative study.

OBJECTIVES: High-dose glucocorticoids for remission-induction of ANCA-associated vasculitis are recommended and commonly used in adults, but recent studies suggest lower glucocorticoid doses can reduce toxicity without reducing efficacy. No paediatric-specific data exists to inform optimal glucocorticoid dosing in paediatric ANCA-associated vasculitis (pAAV). Our objectives were to describe glucocorticoid use in pAAV-related renal disease, and to explore associations between glucocorticoid dose, baseline patient characteristics and 12-month outcomes. METHODS: Youth <18 years with pAAV, biopsy-confirmed pauci-immune glomerulonephritis and 12-month follow-up data were included from an international paediatric vasculitis registry. Presenting features and 12-month outcomes (eGFR, glucocorticoid-related adverse effects), were compared between patients receiving no, low-moderate (≤90mg/kg) and high (>90mg/kg) cumulative intravenous methylprednisolone (IVMP), and low (<0.5mg/kg/day prednisone equivalent), moderate (0.5-1.5mg/kg/day) and high (>1.5mg/kg/day) starting doses of oral glucocorticoids. RESULTS: Among 131 patients (101 granulomatosis with polyangiitis, 30 microscopic polyangiitis), 27 (21%) received no IVMP, 64 (49%) low-moderate and 29 (22%) high-dose IVMP, while 9 (7%) received low, 75 (57%) moderate and 47 (36%) high initial doses of oral glucocorticoids. Renal failure at diagnosis (p=0.022) and plasmapheresis use (p=0.0001) were associated with high-dose IVMP. Rates of glucocorticoid-related adverse effects ranged from 15-31% across dose levels, and glucocorticoid dosing did not associate with 12-month outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Glucocorticoid dosing for pAAV-related renal disease was highly variable, and rates of adverse effects were high across all dosing groups. A significant proportion of patients received oral glucocorticoid or IVMP doses that were discordant with current adult guidelines. Higher glucocorticoid doses did not associate with improved outcomes.

Parent-Reported Medication Side Effects and Their Impact on Health-Related Quality of Life in Children With Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the frequency and severity of parent-reported medication side effects (SEs) in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) relative to physician-reported actionable adverse events (AEs), and to assess their impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). METHODS: Newly diagnosed JIA patients recruited between 2017 and 2019 to the Canadian Alliance of Pediatric Rheumatology Investigators (CAPRI) Registry were included. Parents reported presence and severity (0 = no problem, 10 = very severe) of medication SEs at every clinic visit. Physicians were asked to report any actionable AE. HRQoL was assessed using the Quality of My Life (QoML) questionnaire (0 = the worst, 10 = the best) and parent's global assessment (0 = very well, 10 = very poor). Analyses included proportion of visits with SEs or actionable AEs, cumulative incidence by Kaplan-Meier methods, and HRQoL impact measured with longitudinal mixed-effects models. RESULTS: SEs were reported at 371 of 884 (42%) visits (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 39, 45%) in 249 patients, with a median of 2 SEs per visit (interquartile range [IQR] 1-3), and median severity of 3 (IQR 1.5-5). Most SEs were gastrointestinal (32.5% of visits) or behavioral/psychiatric (22.4%). SE frequency was lowest with nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs alone (34.7%) and highest with prednisone and methotrexate combinations (66%). SE cumulative incidence was 67% (95% CI 59, 75) within 1 year of diagnosis, and 36% (95% CI 28, 44) for actionable AEs. Parent global and QoML scores were worse with SEs present; the impact persisted after adjusting for pain and number of active joints. CONCLUSION: Parents report that two-thirds of children with JIA experience SEs impacting their HRQoL within 1 year of diagnosis. SE mitigation strategies are needed in managing JIA.

Evaluation of E148Q and Concomitant AA Amyloidosis in Patients with Familial Mediterranean Fever.

The aim of the study was to compare the clinical phenotype of patients with familial Mediterranean fever (FMF)-related AA amyloidosis, according to the age of FMF diagnosis and E148Q genotype. Patients with biopsy-confirmed FMF-related AA amyloidosis were included in the study. Tel-Hashomer criteria were applied in the diagnosis of FMF. All patients had detailed baseline assessment of clinical features, renal functions, genetic testing, histopathological diagnosis of amyloidosis, and treatment received. Multiple comparisons were performed according to the age of diagnosis, disease phenotype, mutation, and mortality. Our study included 169 patients with a diagnosis of AA amyloidosis. There were 101 patients diagnosed with FMF < 18 years of age and 68 patients diagnosed who were ≥18 years of age. The three most common clinical manifestations were fever (84.6%), abdominal pain (71.6%), and arthritis (66.9%). The most common allele among FMF patients was M694V (60.6%), followed by E148Q (21.4%), and M680I (10.3%). The most frequent genotypes were M694V/M694V (45.0%), M694V/E148Q (14.8%), and E148Q/E148Q (11.2%) among 169 patients in our cohort. During the follow-up period, 15 patients (10 male, 5 female) died, of whom 14 had M694V homozygous genotype and one was homozygous for E148Q. Clinicians should be aware of patients with homozygous E148Q genotype for close monitoring and further evaluation. The possible relationship between E148Q and AA amyloidosis needs to be confirmed in other ethnicities.

Causal pathways to health-related quality of life in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: results from the ReACCh-Out cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Structural equation modelling was applied to data from the Research in Arthritis in Canadian Children emphasizing Outcomes (ReACCh-Out) cohort to help elucidate causal pathways to decreased health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in children with JIA. METHODS: Based on published literature and clinical plausibility, a priori models were constructed with explicit root causes (disease activity, treatment intensity) and mediators (pain, disease symptoms, functional impairments) leading to HRQoL [measured by the Quality of my Life (QoML) scale and the Juvenile Arthritis Quality of Life Questionnaire (JAQQ)] at five disease stages: (i) diagnosis, (ii) 3-9 months after diagnosis, (iii) flare, (iv) remission on medications, (v) remission off medications. Following structural equation modelling, a posteriori models were selected based on data fit and clinical plausibility. RESULTS: We included 561, 887, 137, 186 and 182 patients at each stage, respectively. In a posteriori models for active disease stages, paths from disease activity led through pain, functional impairments, and disease symptoms, directly or through restrictions in participation, to decreased QoML scores. Treatment intensity had detrimental effects through psychosocial domains; while treatment side effects had a lesser role. Pathways were similar for QoML and JAQQ, but JAQQ models provided greater specificity. Models for remission stages were not supported by the data. CONCLUSION: Our findings support disease activity and treatment intensity as being root causes of decreased HRQoL in children with JIA, with pain, functional impairments, and participation restrictions being mediators for disease activity; they support psychosocial effects and side effects as being mediators for treatment intensity.

A Proteinase 3 Contribution to Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis-Associated Cartilage Damage.

A full understanding of the molecular mechanisms implicated in the etiopathogenesis of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is lacking. A critical role for leukocyte proteolytic activity (e.g., elastase and cathepsin G) has been proposed. While leukocyte elastase's (HLE) role has been documented, the potential contribution of proteinase 3 (PR3), a serine protease present in abundance in neutrophils, has not been evaluated. In this study we investigated: (1) PR3 concentrations in the synovial fluid of JIA patients using ELISA and (2) the cartilage degradation potential of PR3 by measuring the hydrolysis of fluorescently labeled collagen II in vitro. In parallel, concentrations and collagen II hydrolysis by HLE were assessed. Additionally, the levels of the co-secreted primary granule protein myeloperoxidase (MPO) were assessed in synovial fluid of patients diagnosed with JIA. We report the following levels of analytes in JIA synovial fluid: PR3-114 ± 100 ng/mL (mean ± SD), HLE-1272 ± 1219 ng/mL, and MPO-1129 ± 1659 ng/mL, with a very strong correlation between the PR3 and HLE concentrations (rs = 0.898, p < 1 × 10-6). Importantly, PR3 hydrolyzed fluorescently labeled collagen II as efficiently as HLE. Taken together, these novel findings suggest that PR3 (in addition to HLE) contributes to JIA-associated joint damage.

Cardiovascular disease risk assessment in patients with familial Mediterranean fever related renal amyloidosis.

Chronic inflammation and proteinuria is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with chronic kidney diseases and rheumatologic disorders. Our aim was to investigate the CVD events (CVDEs) and survival between the patients with FMF-related AA amyloidosis and glomerulonephropathies (GN) to define possible predictors for CVDEs. A prospective follow-up study with FMF-amyloidosis and glomerulonephropathy (GN) was performed and patients were followed for CVDEs. Flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), FGF-23, serum lipid, hsCRP levels, BMI and HOMA were assessed. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the risk factors for CVDEs. There were 107 patients in the FMF-amyloidosis group and 126 patients with GN group. Forty-seven CVDEs were observed during the 4.2-years follow up; all 28 patients in the FMF-amyloidosis group and 14/19 patients with GN developed CVDEs before the age of 40 (p = 0.002). CVD mortality was 2.8 times higher (95% CI 1.02-7.76) in patients with FMF-amyloidosis. Across both groups, FMD and FGF23 (p < 0.001) levels were independently associated with the risk of CVDEs. Patients with FMF-amyloidosis are at increased risk of early CVDEs with premature mortality age. FGF 23, FMD and hsCRP can stratify the risk of early CVD in patients with FMF-related AA amyloidosis.

The expanding clinical phenotype of germline ABL1-associated congenital heart defects and skeletal malformations syndrome.

Congenital heart defects and skeletal malformations syndrome (CHDSKM) is a rare autosomal dominant disorder characterized by congenital heart disease, skeletal abnormalities, and failure to thrive. CHDSKM is caused by germline mutations in ABL1. To date, three variants have been in association with CHDSKM. In this study, we describe three de novo missense variants, c.407C>T (p.Thr136Met), c.746C>T (p.Pro249Leu), and c.1573G>A (p.Val525Met), and one recurrent variant, c.1066G>A (p.Ala356Thr), in six patients, thereby expanding the phenotypic spectrum of CHDSKM to include hearing impairment, lipodystrophy-like features, renal hypoplasia, and distinct ocular abnormalities. Functional investigation of the three novel variants showed an increased ABL1 kinase activity. The cardiac findings in additional patients with p.Ala356Thr contribute to the accumulating evidence that patients carrying either one of the recurrent variants, p.Tyr245Cys and p.Ala356Thr, have a high incidence of cardiac abnormalities. The phenotypic expansion has implications for the clinical diagnosis of CHDSKM in patients with germline ABL1 variants.

Real-World Effectiveness of Common Treatment Strategies for Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: Results From a Canadian Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Undervaluing the effectiveness of conventional treatments may lead to overtreatment with biologic medications in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Using data from a nationwide inception cohort and strict methods to control bias, the aim of our study was to estimate the real-world effectiveness of simple JIA treatment strategies recommended in current guidelines. METHODS: Children with JIA who were recruited at 16 Canadian centers from 2005 to 2010 were followed for up to 5 years. For each child, all observed treatment changes over time were assessed by independent physicians using prospectively collected data and published response criteria. Success was defined as attainment of inactive disease or maintenance of this state when stepping down treatment; minimally active disease was deemed acceptable for children with polyarticular JIA. Success rates were calculated for treatments tried ≥25 times, and logistic regression analysis identified features associated with success. RESULTS: A total of 4,429 treatment episodes were observed in 1,352 children. Nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID) monotherapy was attempted 697 times, mostly as initial treatment when <5 joints were involved, with a 54.4% success rate (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 50.3-58.6). NSAIDs plus joint injections had a 64.7% success rate (95% CI 59.8-69.7). Adding methotrexate to NSAIDs and/or joint injections (attempted 566 times) had a 60.5% success rate (95% CI 55.7-65.3). In adjusted analyses, each additional active joint reduced chances of success for treatment with NSAIDs (odds ratio [OR] 0.90 [95% CI 0.85-0.94]) and for methotrexate combinations (OR 0.96 [95% CI 0.94-0.99]). Each additional year after disease onset reduced chances of success for treatment with methotrexate combinations (OR 0.83 [95% CI 0.72-0.95]). CONCLUSION: These real-world effectiveness estimates show that conventional nonbiologic treatment strategies that are recommended in current guidelines are effective in achieving treatment targets in many children with JIA.

Patterns of joint involvement in juvenile idiopathic arthritis and prediction of disease course: A prospective study with multilayer non-negative matrix factorization.

BACKGROUND: Joint inflammation is the common feature underlying juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Clinicians recognize patterns of joint involvement currently not part of the International League of Associations for Rheumatology (ILAR) classification. Using unsupervised machine learning, we sought to uncover data-driven joint patterns that predict clinical phenotype and disease trajectories. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed prospectively collected clinical data, including joint involvement using a standard 71-joint homunculus, for 640 discovery patients with newly diagnosed JIA enrolled in a Canada-wide study who were followed serially for five years, treatment-naïve except for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and diagnosed within one year of symptom onset. Twenty-one patients had systemic arthritis, 300 oligoarthritis, 125 rheumatoid factor (RF)-negative polyarthritis, 16 RF-positive polyarthritis, 37 psoriatic arthritis, 78 enthesitis-related arthritis (ERA), and 63 undifferentiated arthritis. At diagnosis, we observed global hierarchical groups of co-involved joints. To characterize these patterns, we developed sparse multilayer non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). Model selection by internal bi-cross-validation identified seven joint patterns at presentation, to which all 640 discovery patients were assigned: pelvic girdle (57 patients), fingers (25), wrists (114), toes (48), ankles (106), knees (283), and indistinct (7). Patterns were distinct from clinical subtypes (P < 0.001 by χ2 test) and reproducible through external data set validation on a 119-patient, prospectively collected independent validation cohort (reconstruction accuracy Q2 = 0.55 for patterns; 0.35 for groups). Some patients matched multiple patterns. To determine whether their disease outcomes differed, we further subdivided the 640 discovery patients into three subgroups by degree of localization-the percentage of their active joints aligning with their assigned pattern: localized (≥90%; 359 patients), partially localized (60%-90%; 124), or extended (<60%; 157). Localized patients more often maintained their baseline patterns (P < 0.05 for five groups by permutation test) than nonlocalized patients (P < 0.05 for three groups by permutation test) over a five-year follow-up period. We modelled time to zero joints in the discovery cohort using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model considering joint pattern, degree of localization, and ILAR subtype. Despite receiving more intense treatment, 50% of nonlocalized patients had zero joints at one year compared to six months for localized patients. Overall, localized patients required less time to reach zero joints (partial: P = 0.0018 versus localized by log-rank test; extended: P = 0.0057). Potential limitations include the requirement for patients to be treatment naïve (except NSAIDs), which may skew the patient cohorts towards milder disease, and the validation cohort size precluded multivariate analyses of disease trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: Multilayer NMF identified patterns of joint involvement that predicted disease trajectory in children with arthritis. Our hierarchical unsupervised approach identified a new clinical feature, degree of localization, which predicted outcomes in both cohorts. Detailed assessment of every joint is already part of every musculoskeletal exam for children with arthritis. Our study supports both the continued collection of detailed joint involvement and the inclusion of patterns and degrees of localization to stratify patients and inform treatment decisions. This will advance pediatric rheumatology from counting joints to realizing the potential of using data available from uncovering patterns of joint involvement.

Predicting Which Children with Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Will Not Attain Early Remission with Conventional Treatment: Results from the ReACCh-Out Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the probability of early remission with conventional treatment for each child with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Children with a low chance of remission may be candidates for initial treatment with biologics or triple disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD). METHODS: We used data from 1074 subjects in the Research in Arthritis in Canadian Children emphasizing Outcomes (ReACCh-Out) cohort. The predicted outcome was clinically inactive disease for ≥ 6 months starting within 1 year of JIA diagnosis in patients who did not receive early biologic agents or triple DMARD. Models were developed in 200 random splits of 75% of the cohort and tested on the remaining 25% of subjects, calculating expected and observed frequencies of remission and c-index values. RESULTS: Our best Cox logistic model combining 18 clinical variables a median of 2 days after diagnosis had a c-index of 0.69 (95% CI 0.67-0.71), better than using JIA category alone (0.59, 95% CI 0.56-0.63). Children in the lowest probability decile had a 20% chance of remission and 21% attained remission; children in the highest decile had a 69% chance of remission and 73% attained remission. Compared to 5% of subjects identified by JIA category alone, the model identified 14% of subjects as low chance of remission (probability < 0.25), of whom 77% failed to attain remission. CONCLUSION: Although the model did not meet our a priori performance threshold (c-index > 0.70), it identified 3 times more subjects with low chance of remission than did JIA category alone, and it may serve as a benchmark for assessing value added by future laboratory/imaging biomarkers.